Despite injuries to Harry Kane and Manuel Neuer, Bayern Munich have dealt comfortably with two strong opponents over the past week, scoring a total of nine goals against Heidenheim (4:2) and Shakhtar Donetsk (5:1). At Mainz, they are unlikely to drop points, particularly as it's crucial for them to extend their lead in the title race.
Following the November international break, Mainz benefited from a favourable schedule, overcoming crisis-hit Holstein Kiel (3:0) and Hoffenheim (2:0). However, against a solid Wolfsburg side (3:4), they began to encounter issues. Wolfsburg needed just 1.23 xG and five shots on target to claim victory. After the injury to key defender Danny da Costa, Bo Henriksen's coaching staff were left without reliable options for their back three.
In their encounter with Heidenheim, Bayern Munich managed to change the game's dynamic with substitutions—Jamal Musiala and Leon Goretzka both made critical impacts from the bench, contributing three goals. Bayern lead the Bundesliga by a margin in xG (35.45), and they have the second-best shooting efficiency after Wolfsburg (+5.55 goals vs +9.27). It's evident that personnel losses have not hampered their squad, with reserve players stepping up.
Mainz have conceded nine goals in seven home matches. At the end of October, Bayern knocked out Mainz on their own turf in a cup match with a Jamal Musiala hat-trick (4:0). We believe the favourites are quite capable of replicating that success.
